Rely on Kovalchuk

Few forwards produce at the supreme and consistent rate Ilya Kovalchuk does.  His exploits come against top defensive pairings and strategies are geared towards shutting him down every night.  His shifts are electric.  Since his rookie running-mate Dany Heatley was traded straight across for the now-departed Marian Hossa, Kovalchuk’s production has startling matured.  Ilya’s point-per-game status is impressive to say the least through 450+ games and defensive habits that were much maligned earlier in his career, have had been addressed. 

The Thrashers have supplied a scant list of forwards to the lineup on an every day basis and while Hossa was an elite player, the talent pool certainly dropped off from there.  Vyacheslav Kozlov has certainly been a mentor to Kovalchuk, providing a secondary threat for Atlanta and giving Ilya much needed guidance.  Kozlov’s two Stanley Cups with the Red Wings in the late 1990s are surely a beacon to Kovalchuk.  The former Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy winner is set to enter his seventh NHL season and is just 25 years old, while Kozlov is entering the dénouement of his career.

Bryan Little, Angelo Esposito,  Tobias Enstrom, and Zach Bogosian are a dynamic young core of players to build around in the future for Atlanta. The organization must decide whether or not to sign Kovalchuk to another contract, or to gain from his departure now obtaining a healthy roster in return.  The real issue is whether or not the Thrashers will be in the playoff hunt next spring.  Kovalchuk’s current contract will expire after the 2009-10 season, but while everyone has their eyes on the Marian Gaborik piñata, the Kovalchuk prize could be had before that if the right price were dangled in front of GM Don Waddell.  The only sticking point might be a taboo on trading the team’s primary star.

Let us face it.  Atlanta has hardly made significant, awe-inspiring transactions.  The most recent blunder was paving the way to the Eastern Finals for Philadelphia when they sent a then unknown defenseman Braydon Coburn to the Flyers for aging Alexei Zhitnik who now skates for Dynamo Moskva in the Kontinental Hockey League.  An astute General Manager with an array of talented prospects or a couple first-round draft picks and a roster player or two could pry our Olympic Bronze-medalist from the Thrasher’s cold, playoff-whetted fingers.  Goaltending prospect Ondrej Pavelec is disgruntled (to say the least) and I expect a move to be made soon on that front.  The Thrashers have ample salary-cap space and could take on heavy contracts but I do not see that happening with good sense. 

I doubt if there could be a comparison to this situation.  Hossa’s free-agency was a high-profile event that the hockey world hinged on, especially after he aided the Penguins’ run to the Finals this past spring.  Sure, Gaborik is the supposed prize catch this year in the world of hockey, free agent or not.  Signing Gaborik to a ~$9M dollar deal would be questionable to say the least, as his inability to maintain proper competition health and a seemingly misguided ego has a detrimental effect on a team’s performance.  A serious argument could be had that Gaborik has not lived up to his $7.5M contract with the Wild and should not be in line for a raise.  Sidney Crosby is an example of a player realizing this, signing immediately to a deal that pays him $8.7M per season (average), well below his relative worth.  Stars can be champions only when they take a backseat to the team philosophy. 

I expect this year to be Kovalchuk’s finest yet.  Accompanied by a dearth of talent again, the Thrashers have some exuberant youngsters in Erik Christensen, Enstrom, Little, and Bogosian in the lineup to start the season.  One playoff appearance in the organization’s existence is not enough to keep one of the league’s top-six performers interested long.